Fórmulas para Dutching em múltiplos mercados com comissão
Neste artigo, estaremos falando sobre a colocação de apostas Dutching em resultados (jogadores, cavalos, equipes etc.) ou seleções (como são chamados no BetFair) que pertencem aos diferentes mercados dos mesmos eventos esportivos. Se você é novo em Dutching ou se deseja apostar em seleções dentro do mesmo tipo de mercado, confira Fórmulas para Dutching em um único mercado.
Especificidades do Dutching em múltiplos mercados
So, what is the cross-market Dutching about?
It is about backing (in most cases it is backing) certain outcomes that are part of different markets of the same sports event, such as Win vs AvB markets of a horse race, Correct Score vs Over/Under X goals of a football match, or a match winner vs set winner in a tennis match. The idea here is to back on selections representing opposing or incompatible outcomes, such as backing on the favourite in the Win market and backing on the second favourite in the AvB market, or backing on “0 – 0” in Correct Score and backing on Over 0.5 goals.
In an ideal world, is it very similar to single-market Dutching: all you need to do is to calculate the book value of the selections you will back on, i.e. 100/{price of 0-0} + 100/{price of Over 0.5 goals}, then apply the same formulae as in Single-Market Dutching.
However, the world is not ideal, as there is such thing as the exchange commission. BetFair will deduct 5% (the actual commission may vary depending on the market or your account terms) off your winnings, which will ruin the careful calculation and leave you with an unpredictable profit/loss. The lower the prices you bet at, the more dramatic the changes will be!
You need to account for the commission in the Dutching formulae.
So let’s rephrase them in the following way (we will use the ones for backing, but you will easily figure out how to apply the changes to laying):
For Backing:
If you want a target profit of PROFIT, then the amount for each bet is calculated as follows.
Amount = PAYOUT/corrected_back_price
Where corrected_back_price is the price of the selection you are backing on adjusted for the market commission.
corrected_back_price = (price-1)*(1 – commission/100) + 1
For example, if the price is 8.0 and the commission is 6%, then the corrected price is
(8-1)*(1 - 0.06) +1 = 7.58
PAYOUT = PROFIT*100/(100 – corrected_back_book);
Corrected_back_book is the sum of the corrected chances to win of all the selections you are backing on, i.e. 100/corrected_back_price1 + 100/corrected_back_price2 + … + 100/corrected_back_priceN.
Note that you must adjust each price individually for the commission that applies in that specific market, as commissions can differ across the different markets of the same event!
After you have calculated the amount, you should place it at the current back price, not the corrected one.
Let's Get Some Practice
Below is a downloadable Excel spreadsheet with a sample calculation of cross-market Dutching for 5 selections in 5 different markets with different commission values from 3% to 5%. You can analyse it to figure out how to use the formulae for another number of selections/markets. The main thing is to correct the book for the right percentage of commission. Experiment with the prices and the commissions to see how this changes the corrected book but does not change the end P/L (which is in fact our goal).
Download a calculation spreadsheet for Cross-Market Dutching
How to Do Cross-Market Dutching in MarketFeeder Pro
In MarketFeeder Pro, you can access the parameters and prices of specific markets within the same event (in certain sports) by using prefixes, such as winplace_ for win and place markets or football1_, football2_ etc. for football, or tennis1_, tennis2_ etc. for tennis.
Here is a downloadable, ready-to-use trigger file with an example of cross-market Dutching for 0-3, 1-2, 2-1, 3-0 (Correct Score) and Under 2.5 Goals (Over/Under 2.5 Goals). Note the triggers doing the intermediate calculation of the corrected book. The prefix football2_ addresses the Correct Score market, while football8_ addresses the Over/Under 2.5 Goals.
Download the trigger file for Back-Dutching in Correct Score and Over/Under 2.5 Goals
The indices 4, 7, 10 and 13 in Correct Score correspond to the selections 0-3, 1-2, 2-1 and 3-0 respectively, while the index 1 in Over/Under 2.5 Goals is for the second selection, Over 2.5 Goals.
This is an example of how bets can be placed in Correct Score:
And in Over/Under 2.5 Goals:
The target profit is £10.
Do not feel overwhelmed by the indices and prefixes: you will find a comprehensive list of them with detailed description in the manual.